National Summary
At the end of January 2025, national inventory for sale was up +24.6% compared to January 2024, thus indicating that the national market has softened and buyers simply aren't purchasing homes as quickly as before. That said, real estate is hyper-local and the differential between markets within the Golden Triangle is apparent.
Golden Triangle Markets
SYKES covers the Golden Triangle markets of Palm Beach, Miami, NYC, The Hamptons, and coastal New Jersey.
Palm Beach
The Mar-a-Lago security zone has been re-opened and with it, the floodgate of interest into single family homes on the Island. The resale condo market is still challenging (and opportunistic!) due to ongoing state-mandated concrete restoration projects.
Miami
Condo{over}building continues, with front runners like the Mandarin, 1428 Brickell, & Aman performing head & shoulders above neighboring options.
NYC
The city has been stock-piling resale condo inventory as many chose to commute or rent in lieu of investing downtown. The UES remains the darling of Manhattan, as it’s located above the congestion-pricing zone and residents enjoy a serenity not common in other areas of the city.
The Hamptons
It's time to lock down your summer rental; options are available now but within months only the dregs will remain.
Jersey Coast
Still the most under-valued market IMO. If SALT caps are repealed, expect another influx of full-time residents into Shore communities.
California Wildfires and National Implications
Our hearts go out to all those affected by the California wildfires. We want to applaud the SoCal brokers who are paying it forward and offering deferred commission for those with urgent relocation needs. To contribute to this effort, SYKES is offering 50/50 referral splits for any California brokers sending clients who want to relocate to FL / NY / NJ. It is estimated that up to 70% of Palisades residents will not return to rebuild due to extraordinary construction and insurance costs. We are starting to see an influx of California interest to the Palm Beach and Miami markets, as they offer the most similar lifestyle to that of Los Angeles.
Key Implications of the SoCal Wildfires:
- The demand for rentals in Los Angeles is already skyrocketing
- The greater Los Angeles resale market will get tighter
- People will consider leaving California, with Florida being a target for relocation
- People will consider selling remaining dirt in lieu of navigating the timeline to rebuild
- SoCal markets with lower fire risk will increase in desirability
- Homeowner insurance rates will rise
- Insurance will be increasingly difficult to purchase
- Cost of construction will rise due to labor shortage and demand for building materials
- Fire-resiliency will become increasingly critical
- Preferences towards new homes will grow
California Governor Newsom issued an executive order in mid-January barring investors from making unsolicited, undervalued offers to families impacted by the firestorms to buy their land. Although the goal of this order is to prevent predatory purchases, it is having an adverse effect, as many are desperate to sell as they cannot afford to continue paying the monthly mortgage and insurance premiums on homes that have been destroyed. Additionally, if it is confirmed that arson started one or multiple fires, many insurance companies will not cover the loss, as arson is an exclusion on most fire policies. Newsom also lifted a price cap on rent increases above 10% on 4+ bedrooms homes in some Los Angeles zip codes, thus encouraging an influx of rental supply. Although altruistic in theory, the measure only benefits the top end of the market and not the vast majority of those who are currently displaced.
My Pet Peeve
Click to hear the phrase that I told CNBC makes me cringe…
Taxes
Reminder on the difference between property taxes in NY / NJ v. FL
