FAQ: What is going on with the market?
The answer is a juxtaposition in itself.
Nationally, home sales have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 30 years, while new inventory continues to rise. In tangent, credit card debt hit a new high of $1.2 trillion, up 20% (!!) since May 2024, which could motivate further price reductions and serve as a reality check for remaining overpriced Sellers.
After years of limited options, Buyers finally have the choices they were craving, but simply can’t seem to make a decision, even when wooed with discounts and concessions.
This paradox of choice is proving to be paralyzing, as the pursuit of perfection hinders progress.
Let’s dive into our five focus Golden Triangle markets to see where shoppers have the most optionality when compared to last year…
Inventory Change y/y:
Miami +29%
Palm Beach +23%
The Hamptons +4%
NJ Coast - Flat
NYC (Manhattan) -5.8%
Desire ≠ Demand
People have the often-quoted inventory 'shortage' all wrong. Desire for a home does not equate to demand and the national market will get worse before it gets better. Of course, there are pockets of strength, as indicated in the above inventory change variables, but generally speaking, this is a tough market.
Nationally, the number of unsold completed new single-family homes has hit the highest level since July 2009.
Since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed new homes has been rising:
Jan. 2018 —> 63,000
Jan. 2019 —> 76,000
Jan. 2020 —> 76,000
Jan. 2021 —> 40,000
Jan. 2022 —> 32,000
Jan. 2023 —> 68,000
Jan. 2024 —> 83,000
Jan. 2025 —> 115,000
Consumer Pain
Not only is housing inventory up, but so are credit card debt and delinquent loan balances.
National credit card debt has hit an all-time high of $1.2 trillion, having increased by 20% in the last 9 months alone.
Delinquent loan balances on credit cards (9%), autos (8%), mortgages (4.7%), and HELOCs (2%) have all been trending steeply higher, with student loan debt likely to follow.
Persistent inflation seems to be knocking on the breaking point of the American consumer.
The Trump Bump
The six blocks north of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach is behaving in a way totally different to the rest of the area... my interview in Luxury Tribune explains why.
