GOLDEN TRIANGLE UPDATE
The past few months have proven once again that real estate is hyper-local. While national headlines may paint a broad picture, our five core markets continue to tell vastly different stories.
Inventory is up almost across the board, but the scale and impact of that growth vary significantly by region, directly influencing price flexibility and negotiability.
Inventory Change Y/Y (Single Family + Condo):
• Miami: +44%
• Palm Beach: +25%
• The Hamptons: -1%
• NJ Coast: Flat
• NYC (Manhattan): +3.8%
While The Hamptons and the NJ Coast have remained relatively stable in terms of available listings, Miami, Palm Beach, and Manhattan continue to see notable increases, each driven by unique regional factors.
South Florida
In Miami, the sharp rise in inventory stems from two main drivers; a surge of new construction condos hitting the MLS, and a noticeable uptick in resale listings as homeowners look to exit before higher insurance premiums and special assessments in HOA communities further cut into margins.
Palm Beach is seeing similar trends. New construction is booming across the bridge in West Palm, while on the Island, trophy homes sales ($30M+) continue to outperform days-on-market of standard listings with less character.
For buyers, this is a rare window of opportunity. With 30-year fixed rates hovering near 6%, a historical equilibrium, negotiability has improved, with discounts ranging between 10% to 20% off recent highs.
For ideas on how to play the current market in South Florida, watch the video below.
For a deeper dive into the current state of the South Florida market, read The Real Deal’s recent analysis: The Condo Crisis: Older Inventory Hitting SoFla Housing Market
The Hamptons / Coastal NJ
The Hamptons rental market has softened significantly this season, with activity down approximately 30%. A growing share of inventory remains unrented, as former summer tenants opted for shorter stays or alternative destinations. This dip in demand comes just as the market experiences an influx of rental supply, much of it from pandemic-era buyers who are now leasing out their newer homes, which make up nearly half of the available rental properties.
On the NJ Coast, the picture is more resilient but not without signs of softening. Seasonal rental listings are up 10%–30% in towns like Mantoloking, Margate, Stone Harbor, Avalon, and Cape May, as second-home owners aim to offset higher carrying costs. Yet, despite this increased rental inventory, we’re also seeing record-breaking sales of trophy homes, mirroring trends in Palm Beach. More generic or “conforming” properties are sitting idle, while unique, well-located homes continue to trade briskly. It all reinforces the enduring mantra: location, location, location.
One of the most impactful (and unexpected) developments came out of the Governor’s office last week. New legislation shifts the responsibility for paying New Jersey’s ‘Mansion Tax’ from the buyer to the seller, introducing a new, graduated structure effective for all sales closing after July 10, 2025:
• $1 million – $2 million: 1%
• $2 million – $2.5 million: 2%
• $2.5 million – $3 million: 2.5%
• $3 million – $3.5 million: 3%
• Over $3.5 million: 3.5%
While this appears to benefit buyers, in practice, it may lead to higher asking prices or fewer seller concessions, thus potentially cooling a market that has outperformed much of the country.
NYC (Manhattan)
In Manhattan, inventory has crept up modestly, just 3.8% year over year, offering buyers slightly more choice without signaling any major oversupply. Pricing remains relatively firm, with a median listing discount of 4.6%.
The rental market, however, remains a frenzy. Entry-level units often go under contract the same day they hit the market. Average rents for one-bedroom apartments are hovering around $5,000/month, undeterred by the recent passage of the FARE Act.
Effective June 11, 2025, the Fairness in Apartment Rental Expenses (FARE) Act prohibits brokers representing landlords from charging broker fees to tenants. However, it still allows tenant-focused agents to collect a fee, just as they always have. The most meaningful change is the requirement for full disclosure of all tenant-related fees in listings and leases, adding transparency but little real cost savings.
This report is intended to provide high-level direction, but each micro-market behaves differently. Neighborhood, price band, and property type can dramatically alter conditions. For insights specific to your needs, reach out directly to [email protected].
